When will our economy recover?

He didn't bring a crystal ball but J. Alan Day, a TD Banknorth economist, did give us some hope. While talking candidly about our nation's economic challenges, he balanced these opening remarks with some other facts that suggest a recovery is inevitable and that we're perhaps better positioned than other areas of our nation to expand economic opportunity.

Here's the facts...

Good - our productivity continues to improve. We're all getting more efficient and capable of doing more work because of our use of technology.

Bad - our nation's personal debt is too high. This means we are less likely to buy bigger priced items like cars, homes, appliances, etc. That is why car and home buying is down even with low interest rates.

Good - our consumer confidence is on an upward trend. We, as consumers, seem to believe that the worst is over. There's a new consumer normal where we are optimistic but still conservative opening our wallets again but not as much as before.

Bad - state income tax collections are down throughout the nation and in New York, especially. Our state continues to spend too much and we will some day need to pay the bill either through cuts or even higher taxes.

Good - our region has the luxury of Canada as our neighbor. New York welcomes 469,000 visitors from Canada into our state every year. These tourists spend $855 million annually in our state. Now that's a great neighor.

Bad - our recovery at first may be a jobless one. Unemployment is likely to remain high as our productivity and technological gains enable our economy to grow without having to hire new workers right away.

Good - locally the tourism economy seems to be stable. People are still visiting the Lake George and Lake Champlain region.

Good and bad - our "misery index" which measures unemployment, interest rates and other factors is at 11% right now. That's high compared to a year or two ago largely because of rising unemployment. However, the misery index in 1981 was over 20% because we then faced both high unemployment and high interest rates.

To catch a glimpse of J. Alan Day's remarks, please click here.